Introduction
The history of Uzbekistan after the break-up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s is replete with ethnic division, civil strife and Islamic militancy. It is widely acknowledged that only the successful, yet often repressive leadership of one man, Islam Karimov, has been able to keep the nation together. Islam Karimov ruled the nation for over 26 years, and his death on September 2nd, 2016 now casts doubt on any potential successor’s ability to keep the nation from fragmenting along ethnic, religious and geographic lines.
The Fergana Valley, a fertile valley that is also a major strategic gateway in Central Asia that straddles the old Silk Road, has been a hotbed of Islamic militancy and ethnic strife for generations. A number of Islamic terrorist organizations have found their genesis in this region since 1991, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU has been active in the neighboring countries of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kirghizstan, and Tajikistan. The IMU has splintered into pro-ISIS and pro-Taliban factions over the past decade, and continues to pose a destabilizing force to the future of Uzbekistan and all of Central Asia.
The Fergana valley is a hotbed of Islamic fundamentalist activity and a strategically important crossroads for all of Central Asia. This fertile valley is densely populated in comparison to the surrounding dry and arid Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan that surround it, as well as the bottleneck of land that connects it to the rest of Uzbekistan to the West.
The coming months will witness whether or not the Uzbek political bureaucracy, the armed forces and internal security apparatus possess the leadership and capability to keep the nation together and in a state of peace. Although rather small and reliant on soviet era weapons and equipment, the Uzbekistan Armed Forces have been able to provide security to the nation. More importantly, the National Security Services (SNB), which has received far more investment and attention under the Karimov regime than the armed forces, will most likely bear the brunt of countering any internal or foreign attempts to foment unrest. The coming year will test the capabilities of the SNB on many fronts.
Brief History
The Republic of Uzbekistan became an independent nation in 1991. Islam Karimov had been the leader of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic prior to the dissolving of the Soviet Union, assuming the post in 1989, and continued on as its president upon independence in 1991. Often criticized in the west as a post-Soviet dictator, Karimov actually had moved to improve relations with the U.S. and NATO following the events of September 11th, 2001. Karimov allowed NATO the use of the Karshi-Khanabad airbase to aid efforts in invading and occupying Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom. The airbase would prove a key logistics asset in pursuit of U.S. efforts.
In his ongoing struggle to maintain the nation as an Islamic, yet secular state, Karimov found himself often at odds with a devout Islamic population, powerful tribal infighting, and the harmful, yet ever present influence of Islamic fundamentalism. These forces all coalesced, culminating in 2005 with a fateful tragedy in the city of Andijan. A general uprising in the city was crushed by the SBN and Army troops when they opened fire on allegedly unarmed protesters. Official reports state that 187 protesters were killed, but the actual number (according to some media reports) may have exceeded 1,000 dead. The United States responded to the incident with strong criticism in bilateral communications and through the United Nations. Karimov interpreted the U.S. actions as a stab in the back, and demanded that the U.S. led NATO forces vacate the Karshi-Khanabad airbase within 6 months. All NATO forces left the base by November, 2005.
U.S. and NATO military assets were based at Karshi-Khanabad airbase (dubbed K2) for a period of approximately four years in support of NATO operations in Afghanistan. They departed the base in November of 2005.
Karimov may have come to the realization at that point, that the United States was not interested in aiding secular governments against Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East and Central Asia. To the contrary, the U.S. was fueling and instigating Islamic radical movements, both directly and indirectly, all over the region. Karimov turned toward Russia and President Putin in finding a more reliable partner in his struggle to maintain the stabilizing influence of a secular government for Uzbekistan. Russia had been fighting a war against U.S. and Gulf State sponsored Islamic insurgents in its Southern Caucasus Republics for over a decade. This partnership would eventually lead to the Russian Federation and the Republic of Uzbekistan signing a mutual defense treaty in 2005, and Uzbekistan becoming a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) from 2006 to 2012. Uzbekistan had already become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2001, of which Russia is also a member, and remains in the organization at present.
Islamic Fundamentalism
Uzbekistan has been plagued by the specter of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorist organizations since its independence. Although Islamic fundamentalism existed prior to independence, it did not gain much traction until just before the fall of the USSR and the turbulent years that followed. In the turbulent 1990s, a number of notable Islamic groups that desired the overthrow of the secular state and the establishment of a greater “Turkestan” Islamic Caliphate in Central Asia were established. Most notable are the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU). Both groups have perpetrated attacks against the government of Uzbekistan and have found sanctuary in neighboring countries.
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is an internationally recognized terrorist organization that has been in a state of flux since its inception. Plagued by infighting and fractious loyalties in recent years, it is still very much a threat in light of the power vacuum that may come in the wake of Islam Karimov’s death. Karimov fought the IMU, and used it as an excuse to persecute anyone that threatened government control of religion, for the entire 27 years he was in power. The movement attempted to assassinate him in 1999, amongst a host of other terrorist bombings, including suicide bombings, over the past twenty seven years. Karimov’s strong man rulership kept the lid on the radical Islamist bottle, and for most of his presidency, the IMU has been forced to find refuge in neighboring states, most notably Afghanistan and Pakistan, while launching attacks sporadically across the border.
In recent years, the IMU has faced setbacks and a culling of leadership after the organization splintered amongst membership that declared allegiance to the Islamic State and those that maintained ties with the Taliban. The IMU’s Taliban allies did not take the declaration of allegiance to ISIS lightly. This exacerbated a long running feud that dates back to the death of Mullah Omar. In November of 2015, Taliban forces loyal to Mullah Omar largely destroyed an IMU group fighting alongside a Taliban splinter group in Afghanistan. Many IMU members are now fighting alongside ISIS and al-Nusra in Syria. Other than Uzbeks, the IMU is largely made up Tajiks, Kyrgyz, Uyghurs, Chechens, and Arabs.
IMU leader Usmon Ghazi declaring allegiance to Islamic State in August, 2015. This fractured the IMU once again, and has led to much infighting and bloodshed between the Taliban, IMU and IS in Afghanistan.
IMU leader Usmon Ghazi declaring allegiance to Islamic State in August, 2015. This fractured the IMU once again, and has led to much infighting and bloodshed between the Taliban, IMU and IS in Afghanistan.
The Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) is actually a splinter group of the IMU that desires to create a pan-national Islamic state. The IJU was established in 2002, and was based in Waziristan, in northwest Pakistan. The group was connected to foiled terrorist plots targeting civilian targets in Europe in 2007, but has largely been active in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Syria. Due to a high percentage of Turkish membership, the organization has largely sent fighters to Syria in recent years.
There is no doubt that Islamic fundamentalist groups such as the IMU and IJU will attempt to take advantage of any power vacuum or internal struggle created in the wake of President Karimov’s death. Many members of these terrorist groups have been fighting in Afghanistan and Syria over the past decade and a half, and have been battle hardened and further pushed down the road of Islamic fundamentalism and zealotry. International intelligence services and independent analysts are all in agreement that the security services of Uzbekistan are going to be challenged by these groups, as well as a number of other possible indigenous and foreign based threats, in a challenge to the long standing political power structure and social cohesion of the state in the coming year.
The Armed Forces
Although larger and better equipped than most of its neighbors, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Uzbekistan are far from a modern, well-oiled military machine. Is the Uzbek military up to the task of providing for the security of the state against both internal and external threats? The answer is yes, and no. The Uzbek armed forces can defend the nation against any regional conventional force most likely to threaten the sovereignty of the state; however, the most likely threats to the state in the near future will not come from neighboring governments, and will be anything but conventional.
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